Sunday, February 13, 2011

Predicting the First Round the WCHA Playoffs

With the WCHA regular season winding down everyone is wondering who will be hosting a first round playoff series. That is always a tough question for anyone to answer come this time of year, but I will attempt to predict the six matchups come March 11th. The only two things we know for certain is North Dakota has locked up home ice in the first round with a weekend sweep of Alaska Anchorage, and Michigan Tech will be in twelve place when the regular season ends in three weeks.

Just two points separate the top four teams in the conference North Dakota, Denver, Minnesota Duluth and Nebraska-Omaha. The way the schedules shakedown and the way these teams are playing expect them to be the top four in any given order.

I predict North Dakota will be the McNaughton Cup champs this season for two reasons. They only have three loses in their last 18 games and end their season playing Bemidji and Tech. The Sioux will end up with about 42 points and nobody will be able to catch them.

Next there’s Denver who plays Tech, UNO and St. Cloud State in their last three weekends. Even though they have a couple of tough match ups with UNO and surging SCSU team they will find a way to grab eight of their last twelve points. Unfortunately for Pioneer fans they won’t be sporting their second straight McNaughton cup this season, and will finish a couple points shy of the Sioux.

After a disappointing weekend at home against the Huskies from St. Cloud the Bulldogs will bounce back and end the season on a high note. Look for them to get eight or nine points in their last six games to finish third in the WCHA. With the pivotal series coming against UNO in the final weekend of the regular season.

Finishing fourth and falling just a bit short of third this season will be newcomer to the WCHA, the University of Nebraska – Omaha Mavericks. After gaining a weekend sweep against Bucky they will play Anchorage, Denver and UMD to close out the season. The deciding factor in the Mavericks finishing in fourth instead of third will be the series against the Dogs at Amsoil Arena. If this series was at the Quest Center in Omaha it might be the other way around.

This is where things get tricky with a six-team race for the final two home playoff spots. The way I see things playing out will be Gophers in fifth. Reason being is the gophers play both Tech and Bemidji State in the final two weekends and if they can get a couple points from the Badgers this coming weekend that will all but lock up home ice for them.

The Badgers from Wisconsin will get the final home ice spot finishing sixth. They will be one of the underdogs in the playoff this year, even though they have home ice. They have good special teams and good goaltending and look for them to ride Gudmandson’s play to possibly a NCAA Tournament birth.

Just missing home ice will be the Huskies from St. Cloud State, even with a great late season run they will fall just short of a sixth place finish. Not because of their play, but mostly because of their opponents. As they have to play North Dakota, Wisconsin and Denver in the final three weeks. But, look for them to be the money wrench in my scenario, if they can keep up the type of play they had this past weekend against UMD.

Coming in seventh will be CC, partially because, the loss of Jaden Schwartz and the inconsistent play of Joe Howe in net as of late. They also have tough match ups against UMD and Wisconsin in the final two weeks.

Finishing eighth will be the Minnesota State Mavericks. With the tough loss to CC this past Saturday thier hopes for home ice have started to melt. The other thing going against MSU is their bye week after the UMD series. This will hurt any chance of finishing better then eighth as they will watch other teams climb head of them that weekend.

The Alaska Anchorage Seawolves having one of their better seasons in recent memory will still finish in ninth place. Just like the Mavericks they have two games in hand against the rest of the conference and will have to sit idle in conference play as they faceoff for the governors cup against instate rival Alaska.

In ninth other newcomer Bemidji State didn’t get the welcome they were hoping for this season and finish second to last in the conference.

And, last and always least the Michigan Tech Huskies end another abysmal year finishing at the bottom. And will end up playing the Fighting Sioux in back to back weekends to finish out the regular season and start the playoffs.

It’s obvious that anything can happen on any given night in the WCHA, but this is my best guess at predicting the final regular season standing in the conference and the first round playoff matchups.

Michigan Tech at North Dakota
Bemidji State at Denver
Alaska Anchorage at Minnesota Duluth
Minnesota State Mankato at Nebraska – Omaha
Colorado College at Minnesota
St. Cloud State at Wisconsin

Make sure to tune in Feb. 18th and 19th on College Hockey Weekend as we have the matchup between the Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs and Minnesota State Mankato Mavericks.

Marcus Taplin
College Hockey Weekend Producer

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